馬斯克發(fā)布《特斯拉規(guī)劃2.0》：將推太陽能動(dòng)力汽車

　　特斯拉CEO馬斯克此前在推特上發(fā)文，稱即將推出特斯拉規(guī)劃2.0，就在剛剛，IT之家獲悉特斯拉規(guī)劃2.0已經(jīng)發(fā)布，本文為其內(nèi)容節(jié)選。特斯拉未來的規(guī)劃主要分為四個(gè)方面：

　　太陽能動(dòng)力汽車

　　特斯拉將開發(fā)集成太陽能發(fā)電裝置的車頂，該公司不僅僅要做到太陽能技術(shù)的集成，同時(shí)又要兼具美感。此外，馬斯克暗示太陽能發(fā)電汽車將會(huì)擁有手機(jī)應(yīng)用與之匹配，將用戶與汽車完美融合。

　　加速特斯拉產(chǎn)品線建設(shè)

　　馬斯克指出，特斯拉將覆蓋絕大部分消費(fèi)級(jí)市場，從低端到高端都將有相應(yīng)的Model汽車產(chǎn)品推出。同時(shí)他也指出，“比Model3價(jià)格更低的汽車很有可能并無必要”，這意味著Model3將成為特斯拉最低端的產(chǎn)品系列，此外，馬斯克稱正在加速產(chǎn)能潘爬坡來滿足未來的用戶需求。

　　完善自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)

　　馬斯克在博客中解釋了為何現(xiàn)在的自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)被稱為Beta版本，并宣布，未來的特斯拉自動(dòng)駕駛系統(tǒng)將實(shí)現(xiàn)比人類駕駛高十倍的安全性。

　　汽車分享

　　特斯拉未來將推出汽車分享功能，用戶可以在自己的特斯拉汽車閑置時(shí)通過官方App有償租賃給其他用戶，以此獲取收入。

　　本文僅為馬斯克博客摘要，博客全文如下：

　　Master Plan, Part Deux

　　Elon Musk July 20, 2016

　　The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

　　Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive

　　Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price

　　Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car

　　And...

　　Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.

　　The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

　　Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.

　　Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.

　　However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.

　　By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

　　Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:

　　Integrate Energy Generation and Storage

　　Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

　　We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.

　　Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport

　　Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

　　What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

　　In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

　　With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

　　Autonomy

　　As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

　　Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

　　I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.

　　According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.

　　It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.

　　Sharing

　　When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

　　You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

　　In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

　　So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

　　Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage

　　Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

　　Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

　　Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it.